MADURO IS GONE, BUT VENEZUELA IS NOT SAVED YET

A Venezuelan Expat’s Warning on Trump’s Regime-Change Gambit

(January 3, 2026)

I lived in Venezuela for five years. I built a business there. I did business across South America. I have friends still inside the country, not “contacts,” not “sources,” but people whose lives have been shaped, diminished, and often shattered by what Venezuela became.

So when I woke up to the news that Nicolás Maduro had been captured by U.S. forces in a military operation ordered by Donald Trump, my first reaction wasn’t political.

It was human. Because if you’ve lived through Venezuela, truly lived through it, you don’t treat the removal of a dictator like a news cycle. You treat it like oxygen finally reaching a suffocating room.

According to reporting, Maduro and his wife were captured overnight, moved to a U.S. warship, and flown to New York to face narco-terrorism and trafficking-related charges. Trump then declared the United States would temporarily “run” Venezuela and tap its oil reserves to sell to other nations.

That last part is where people should stop celebrating long enough to think. Because you don’t “run” another country without motive. And when a U.S. president openly links intervention to oil output, you have to ask: Is this liberation? Or is it extraction wearing liberation’s mask?

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THE SIMPLE TRUTH: MADURO’S REMOVAL CAN BE GREAT… AND STILL BE SUSPICIOUS

Let me make something clear: Maduro’s departure could be one of the best things that has happened to the Venezuelan people in decades, especially if it opens the door to elections, institutional repair, and genuine sovereignty. But it’s also true that regime change rarely happens for purely moral reasons. The real question is not whether Maduro was bad. That’s settled. The real question is why Trump did this, and what comes next.

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MOTIVE #1: OIL, AND TRUMP SAID IT OUT LOUD

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. That fact is not theoretical. It’s the gravitational force behind every foreign interest in the country. What’s different this time is that Trump didn’t even pretend oil was secondary. AP and CBS both reported that Trump said the U.S. would “run” Venezuela temporarily and “get the oil flowing,” explicitly describing plans to tap reserves and sell petroleum to other nations.

That’s not a slip of the tongue. That’s the motive. And if you’re Venezuelan, or if you lived there long enough to care, you should be uneasy when your country’s future is announced like a corporate takeover.

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MOTIVE #2: DRUGS, THE LEGAL COVER STORY

This operation is being framed as something like a law enforcement “capture” rather than a war. Maduro has been under U.S. indictment since 2020 for narco-terrorism and cocaine trafficking, with DOJ statements describing a “Cartel of the Suns” conspiracy. Politifact reports newly unsealed indictments were cited again today, and the administration is leaning on that legal framework to justify what is otherwise an extraordinary act: the seizure of a sitting foreign head of state.

So yes, drugs may be real.

But drugs also provide legal cover for an act that would otherwise be described in plain English as: a military strike inside a sovereign nation to remove its leader.

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MOTIVE #3: DOMESTIC POLITICS, A PERFECT SPECTACLE

Trump thrives on domination of the media cycle. This operation, spectacular, dramatic, unprecedented, accomplishes that instantly. It also aligns with domestic political incentives, including energizing diaspora communities that have long wanted Maduro removed. South Florida’s Venezuelan-American communities responded with jubilation, but also caution about what comes next. There is also reporting that key officials such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio played a major role in pushing Venezuela policy. In other words: even if Venezuela benefits, Trump benefits immediately.

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MOTIVE #4: GEOPOLITICS, A MESSAGE TO THE WORLD

Germany has already called for a political solution and warned against escalation, stressing international law. Venezuela’s defense minister claims the country will resist foreign troops and described the operation as an assault. This isn’t just Venezuela. It’s a signal to other actors, including Russia and China, about U.S. willingness to use force in the hemisphere. And signals like that are rarely issued without calculation.

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THE PART EVERYONE IS MISSING: MADURO GONE ≠ THE REGIME GONE

Here’s the truth diaspora celebrations can’t afford to ignore:

Even if Maduro is captured, the regime infrastructure remains, military command, party structures, internal intelligence networks, economic mafias.

Some reporting suggests that despite Maduro’s capture, his system may remain intact and could resist U.S.-backed transitions. This is exactly where liberation efforts historically fail:
Not at the top, but in the middle.

The person can be removed.
The machine is harder.

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THE REAL TEST WILL BE WHAT TRUMP DOES NEXT

If this action is truly about democracy, you should expect:

• an international transitional framework

• elections within a clear timeframe

• a limited U.S. footprint

• transparent resource management

• restoration of sovereignty, not management-by-foreigners

If this is about oil, you will see:

• prolonged U.S. “administration”

• control of oil fields and pipelines

• security privatization

• “reimbursement” language

• a new dependency structure replacing the old one

Trump has already used the language of control and oil monetization, which is why your happiness should be paired with vigilance.

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MY POSITION, AS SOMEONE WHO LIVED IT

I don’t need Trump to be a good man for this to be a good moment. I don’t need American motives to be pure for Venezuelans to benefit. But I refuse to be naive, not after watching too many people suffer under a regime that stole a nation slowly, then all at once.

So yes: Maduro being gone is a powerful moment.

But the Venezuelan people deserve more than a victory headline. They deserve a real transition, real sovereignty, and a future that is not traded like a commodity. If Trump’s intervention becomes the beginning of democratic restoration, history may call this liberation. If it becomes oil-backed occupation, history will call it something else. And Venezuelans will be the ones who pay.

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In The End

Maduro is gone.
Now we find out whether Venezuela is finally free, or simply under new management.