The 21st century was once forecasted as the "American Century Part II"—a time of unchallenged U.S. dominance, liberal democracy expansion, and a global economy unified under Western-led institutions. But as we move deeper into the 2020s, it’s becoming apparent that the new century has defied these expectations. Instead, it’s shaping up as the "Russian Century," a period in which Russia, under Vladimir Putin’s leadership, has leveraged historical strategies, modernized its military and technological capabilities, and reshaped the global power structure in ways that often undermine Western influence. Russia has carved out a strategic path that, if allowed to continue, will entrench its place as a dominant force in world affairs—redefining what power means in the 21st century.
How We Got Here: The Path to the Russian Century
To understand how the 21st century became the Russian Century, we must trace the strategic decisions, geopolitical events, and global shifts that enabled Russia’s resurgence.
1. The Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Rise of Putin
The Soviet Union's collapse in 1991 left Russia weakened, fragmented, and politically and economically uncertain. Russia’s first post-Soviet president, Boris Yeltsin, ushered in a new era of reforms aimed at democratization and a market economy. But these efforts were fraught with hardship; the rapid economic changes led to social chaos, rising poverty, and a loss of global status. Many Russians looked back nostalgically to the days of Soviet power and stability.
Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer, rose to power in this context of discontent, promising to restore Russia’s pride, stability, and influence. In 2000, he became president, and his approach contrasted sharply with that of his predecessors. Putin re-centralized power, consolidated the state’s control over key industries, particularly energy, and reestablished Russia’s military might. He articulated a vision of a strong, sovereign Russia that would no longer bow to Western dictates, a vision that resonated with a population weary of instability and eager for a return to greatness.
2. Leveraging Energy as a Strategic Tool
One of Putin’s most successful strategies has been the use of Russia’s vast energy resources as a geopolitical weapon. Russia is one of the world’s largest producers of oil and natural gas, and Putin has skillfully used this asset to exert influence, particularly over Europe. Countries heavily reliant on Russian gas, like Germany and other parts of Eastern Europe, have found themselves in a delicate balancing act between securing energy and responding to Russia’s geopolitical maneuvers.
Through state-controlled energy companies like Gazprom, Russia has been able to fund its ambitions and secure leverage over Europe, often stalling or tempering EU responses to Russian actions, like the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Energy dependence has proved to be a strategic asset that Russia has wielded masterfully, especially as global energy needs increase.
3. Military Modernization and Strategic Assertiveness
Putin also revitalized Russia’s military, focusing on modernization and restructuring to make it more agile and capable. Russia’s military interventions in Georgia (2008), Ukraine (2014 and 2022), and Syria (2015) showcased its willingness to deploy military force to secure its interests and challenge Western influence.
The modernization of the Russian armed forces includes advancements in nuclear capabilities, cyber warfare, and artificial intelligence. The doctrine of hybrid warfare—using disinformation, cyberattacks, and conventional force in tandem—has allowed Russia to destabilize adversaries without full-scale conflict, a strategy seen prominently in Ukraine and in Russia’s interference in various Western elections. These efforts have not only emboldened Russia’s position but have left the West scrambling for an effective counterstrategy.
4. Exploiting Western Divisions and Populism
Russia’s influence has grown partly because of its skill in exploiting and exacerbating divisions within Western democracies. Through sophisticated disinformation campaigns and support for populist movements, Russia has weakened political cohesion in Europe and the United States. Russia-backed narratives have helped sow division over issues such as immigration, NATO, climate change, and political polarization. The Kremlin has effectively used digital tools to undermine faith in democratic institutions and stoke populist sentiments, further fracturing Western societies and weakening the ability of Western nations to present a unified front against Russian aggression.
This strategic exploitation of Western disunity has left Russia in a favorable position, acting as a disruptor in a global order that was once defined by American and European unity.
5. The Rise of a Multipolar World and New Alliances
As Western power and influence have waned, Russia has cultivated alliances with other major powers that share its goal of a multipolar world, where no single country or alliance dominates. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) group has provided a platform for Russia to build economic and strategic ties outside Western frameworks. Russia’s close relationship with China has been particularly significant, as both countries challenge U.S. influence and pursue independent agendas.
This multipolar alignment, reinforced by Russia’s partnership with regional actors in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, has allowed Moscow to expand its influence globally. While the West may impose sanctions, these alliances enable Russia to sidestep economic isolation and maintain its geopolitical objectives.
What the Russian Century Could Look Like
If the current trends continue, the 21st century may indeed be shaped by Russian influence in profound ways. Here’s what this could look like:
1. A Fragmented Europe and Diminished NATO
A Russia-led century would likely see a further weakening of European unity and NATO. As Russia continues to use energy dependence and strategic partnerships, Europe could become more fragmented, divided over how to address Russian influence and reliant on Russian energy and resources. Without a strong, unified Europe, NATO’s influence would diminish, and Russia would expand its sphere of influence over Eastern Europe and the Balkans, effectively challenging Western dominance in the region.
2. A Global Order Based on Realpolitik
The Russian Century would see a global order that leans toward realpolitik—where national interests and strategic power outweigh ideals of democracy and human rights. Putin’s approach to governance, prioritizing sovereignty, strength, and pragmatism over liberal democracy, could become a model for other states, especially in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. This shift would make global alliances more transactional, with fewer commitments to human rights or democratic standards.
3. The Decline of Western Liberal Ideals
Russia’s emphasis on sovereignty and traditional values counters Western liberal ideals of globalization, democracy, and individual freedoms. If Russia’s model continues to gain traction, it could lead to a decline in the influence of these values globally, as more nations adopt authoritarian, centralized governance structures. This shift would mark a significant retreat for the post-World War II liberal order, which sought to establish democratic governance and international cooperation as global standards.
4. Increased Influence in the Middle East and Africa
Russia has already solidified its role in the Middle East, particularly in Syria. A Russian-dominated 21st century would see Moscow’s influence in the Middle East grow further, often at the expense of American influence. With growing alliances with countries like Iran, Turkey, and various Gulf states, Russia could play the role of a broker, balancing interests in a way that keeps regional tensions manageable but firmly within its sphere of control.
Africa, too, could see growing Russian presence, as Moscow cultivates partnerships and provides military and economic support to African states, countering Western influence and creating new markets for Russian goods, energy, and arms.
5. Cyber and Technological Dominance
Russia’s expertise in cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns has already proven effective, but the Russian Century would see these tactics evolve and become even more sophisticated. Russia could dominate in information warfare, using it to influence elections, destabilize governments, and control narratives. This shift would make it increasingly difficult for democracies to function as Russia’s control over digital information erodes trust in media, fuels division, and destabilizes societies from within.
Challenges and Potential Reversals
The idea of a Russian Century isn’t set in stone. Russia faces significant internal challenges, including a shrinking population, economic vulnerabilities, and limited technological innovation compared to the West and China. Sustaining its influence will require continued adaptation and strategic agility. Additionally, any missteps—whether in Ukraine, Syria, or domestic policy—could expose vulnerabilities and create openings for the West to counter Russian influence.
However, if the current trajectory continues, Russia could entrench itself as a primary global power, defining a new era of international relations marked by pragmatism, national sovereignty, and diminished Western influence.
Conclusion: A New Era of Global Power
The 21st century is indeed shaping up to be the Russian Century, driven by a unique mix of historical legacy, strategic foresight, and global shifts that have disrupted the American-led order. Putin’s Russia has skillfully navigated a complex international landscape, capitalizing on Western weaknesses and forging alliances that enhance its global reach.
This potential Russian Century would mark a new chapter in world history—one where the rules of engagement are redefined, and power is balanced in a multi-polar system where realpolitik trumps ideology. The question remains: will the West adapt and reclaim its influence, or will Russia continue to capitalize on the fractures in the global order, cementing a new age of Russian dominance? Only time will tell, but the consequences of inaction could lead to an era where Russian power and influence define the course of the 21st century.